HUBBERT'S HILL

Geophysicist and mathematician King Hubbert (1903 - 1989) realized in the early 1950s that it was easy to set up and solve a differential equation for production of any finite resource. In 1956 he applied his math to oil production in the US and predicted correctly that it would peak in about 1970. When the prediction was confirmed, Hubbert and others applied the analysis to many resources, with uniformly depressing results.

Viewed from a long perspective, the consumption of any non-renewable resource is a very, very minor blip in the overall situation. Anything that depends economically on the easy availability such a resource (fossil fuels, non-ferric metals, rare earths, etc.) is ultimately doomed to vanish.


“I was in New York in the 30’s. I had a box seat at the depression. I can assure you it was a very educational experience. We shut the country down because of monetary reasons. We had manpower and abundant raw materials. Yet we shut the country down. We’re doing the same kind of thing now but with a different material outlook. We are not in the position we were in 1929–30 with regard to the future. Then the physical system was ready to roll. This time it’s not. We are in a crisis in the evolution of human society. It’s unique to both human and geologic history. It has never happened before and it can’t possibly happen again. You can only use oil once. You can only use metals once. Soon all the oil is going to be burned and all the metals mined and scattered.” King Hubbert.


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